Democrats poised to lose the Senate in 2012

[W.E.B. Du Bois]

This is mostly my conjecture. I've based it on facts, recent elections and some of the things I've read.

As of now, there are 53 Democratic/Democratic-caucusing Senators. In 2012, there will be 23 Democratic and 10 Republican Senate seats up for grabs. In addition, many of the Democrats are in red states. Here's how I see the probabilities:

Democrats certain to lose

Kent Conrads old seat after he retired
Ben Nelson of Nebraska

Democrats likely to lose

John Tester of Montana
Claire McCaskill of Missouri

Democrats in trouble

Debbie Stabenow of Michigan

Democrats in Tossup Races

Bill Nelson of Florida
Sherrod Brown of Ohio

Republicans in Trouble

John Ensign of Nevada (although he could get taken out in a Republican primary anyway)



I'd have to do some research on how Tester is faring, but for now I think that he and McCaskill are in trouble and likely to lose. I think it will be hard for McCaskill and Tester to run away from their votes on the stimulus, the bailouts and healthcare. They may not get away, and thus they may get taken down in those red states. So, not counting tossups, Dems are -4, which puts them at 49 seats against 51 Republicans. Democrats will need to face low quality Tea Party candidates like Sharron Angle and Christine O'Donnell in order to be competitive. This could help Democrats a lot in all of these races in addition to Tea Partiers launching primary campaigns against established Republicans in Maine (Olympia Snowe) and Indiana (Dick Lugar). For the record, while many of the GOP Senators are scumbags, I think it is somewhat tragic that in order for Democrats to keep control of the Senate, respectable senators like Lugar would have to be defeated.

We could be looking at a second Bill Clinton scenario of 1996 with a Democrat in the White House and Republicans owning the Congress, or with a very low chance, the Democrats could take the House back, but not the Senate, or the Republicans could run the whole board and take everything back.

The Democrats taking back the House could be unlikely though, as Obama's support among working class whites and independents may have dipped too low for another wave election.

[WhiteAfricanAmerican]

Having read some of your opinions W.E.B about how Republicans had jacked everything up so bad that the entire country abandoned them in 2006 and 2008, what do you make of this rapid return to them?

[dave fagan]

I think it shows Republican control of the major media and managing to blame the current financial crisis on the Dems. It is a work of art signed by His Ignorance GWBush. "You can never underestimate the stupidity of the US electorate." That quote is a political axiom and is a pertinent reflection on your question.

[WhiteAfricanAmerican]

It is a work of art signed by His Ignorance GWBush.

A bit of an oxymoron wouldn't you say Dave.

However your second thought regarding the stupidity and general disengagement (by design or otherwise) holds more water. Frankly I'm in favour of the entire country voting anti-incumbent for thenext decade or so, until Washington gets the message.

[W.E.B. Du Bois]

Having read some of your opinions W.E.B about how Republicans had jacked everything up so bad that the entire country abandoned them in 2006 and 2008, what do you make of this rapid return to them?

Charlie Cook said something which had some truth to it. Obama's health reform was as big a political miscalculation as the War in Iraq. I think there are big differences between the two in a very important level of analysis, but I'll save that for another day.

The kernel of truth that Cook hits upon is that the political cost of the health care reform was extremely high. It might not have mattered if Obama found a way to cut health costs by 25%. The fact that the price tag on it was $1 trillion and about 9 months were spent on it while the unemployment rate was 10% was like running through thorn bushes. It was like a B-17 bomber flying through a curtain of flak cannons. Enormous hits are expected.

Other things that hurt Obama was parts of the stimulus, as well as the overall massive size of the government budget deficit ($1.3 trillion), as well as the bailouts of GM, Chrysler, and I can't even remember right now if there was a TARP II, or if the AIG bailout happened under Bush or Obama. I'm just shooting from the hip on the latter bailouts. Regardless of the merits of any of these things, the enormous amount of money being spent sent the independents reeling and the GOP base (which probably took a vacation in November of 2008 after 8 years of Bush) into extreme mobilization. Lastly, you had depressed turnout among the Democratic base which always happens during the midterm elections. Democratic voters are less reliable than Republicans due to socioeconomic status and age.