One child policy in North Caucasus

[Echo]

Usually when one hears about Russian government policies on family planning, one hears about efforts to raise birth rates and expand family size.

However, North Caucasus Federal District is a whole other story. Republics of Dagestan, Chechnya, and Ingushetia all have very high fertility rates (4 children per woman in Chechnya, over 3 for other two), which has resluted in a demographic explosion, with Chechnya growing from 1,103,686 people in 2002 to 1,268,042 in 2010; Dagestan jumping from 2,576,531 to 2,737,313; and Ingushetia from 467,294 to 516 693. In all three republics, 35-40% of population is 'below working age', aka under 18 years old.

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If you look on a map:

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These are TINY places. And very poor.

In Dagestan, for example, there is a very simple way of life. Most men in rural areas work as chabans, sheep herders:
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The few women who work at all work on street markets in the local capital Makhachkala or other big city, Derbent: http://photopolygon.com/photo/fit/24.../38554.jpg.700

There are few cars, in the auls (villages). Most people ride horses or donkeys:
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Except for local security and government leaders, who ride around in black SUVs without number plates: http://img11.nnm.ru/5/c/5/e/0/06cc6a...2a3de_prev.jpg

Dagestan is affluent, prosperous even, compared to Chechnya. Ingushetia I won't even mention. Still, 15% of the population is unemployed (40% in Chechnya, similar number in Ingushetia).

Because they have rapidly growing populations and very little land, or opportunity for study or good employment, many, primarily young, people have been moving to neighboring Stavropolie region. 500,000 people have settled in Northern Stavropol Krai in the last 10 years, mostly Chechens, Ingush, and Dagestanis (Dargins predominantly). And as they try to establish themselves there, this is causing constant, violent conflicts with, first of all, local, Terek, Cossacks: they too number in the hundreds of thousands there, have equally large families, fast growing numbers, close, strong, well armed, well organized clans, and happen to consider that land their ancestral 'votchina' (fatherland), and are not afraid to use force, including force of arms, to assert and defend that claim.


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Those people live the lifestyle that they had lived for hundreds of years, breeding fine horses, working their farms (khutors), and fighting in the Russian Army:



Ethnic Russians have been leaving the area in recent years, with Russian population in villages bordering Dagestan fell by half. Some are taken in, reluctantly, by Cossacks, supposedly for protection, but really to be used for same purpose that Dargins capture them (Russians) for: as slave labor. Ethnic Russians are made to work on Cossack khutors and Dargin koshars for nothing or next to nothing, for food and a roof over their head. Majority do not have any documents or money, so nowhere and no way to run. And, no, I do not condone this.


Clashes between Cossacks and 'mountain people' have become often and bloody. In one town, the mayor, a Cossack woman, was burnt with her house; and afterward three entire Ingush families were murdered in the same way, apparently in revenge.

And in the local capital city of Stavropol, there had been mass brawls between Cossack youth on one side and young people, students mostly, from the mountains, on the other. And in last few months, there had been attacks on nighclubs and other venues catering to Chechen and Dagestani youth, in late times. Two or three cars would drive up, and gunmen from inside would fire. 5 people have already been killed this way, scores more wounded. It has been said the assailants are either local police or working in collaboration with local police (99% Cossacks). The region is on the brink of war, literally.

So, a solution being proposed is, believe it or not, putting a limit on reproduction in that whole region, for both mountaineers and Cossacks. Legislate a 2 child maximum or something.

I, personally, think it is a fine idea, IN THEORY. But it will never work in real life.

A. Anyone who walks into the home of a Chechen or a Cossack and tries to tell him and his wife (or wives in case of many Chechen families, polygamy is widespread there) how many children they can have would be lucky to make it back out alive.

B. Abortion is just not popular there, neither is birth control. Men hate wearing condoms, say it is uncomfortable; and women do not want to use The Pill, as they believe it is a sin against God (strangely enough, BOTH Muslim Chechen or Ingush and Orthodox Christian Cossack women believe this), and they think it can also make you infertile for life. Educating does not work, as girls there are taught, since childhood, to believe her husband and her parents above anyone else, and husbands or parents there usually would not tell his wife to use birth control.

So, I think if anyone in government will have the balls to try this, they will fail anyway. But, something does need to happen there. Before there is big blood.And those poor people who are enslaved, they need help too, first of all.

[annoyinglylongname]

The sad fact of the matter is if the world would adopt a one child policy and strictly adhere to it for a couple of generations, the world would be a place of plenty for everyone. Unfortunately, it will require a die-off from pestilence, disease or warfare to reduce the population. The only other ways to reduce the pressure on resources is increase prices or limit production, I am wondering when the world's religions will ever acknowledge the fact we have too many people on the planet until such time as the problem will only be rectified by draconian measures.
There is enough evidence out there to support the fact that educated women do not have as many children as illiterate women. That does seem to transcend any nationality, racial or religious boundary. However, there are stalwart religious and social structures that prefer to keep women under the control of a patriarchal society.

[Mike]

There is enough evidence out there to support the fact that educated women do not have as many children as illiterate women. That does seem to transcend any nationality, racial or religious boundary. However, there are stalwart religious and social structures that prefer to keep women under the control of a patriarchal society.

That could make for a very interesting discussion, A. Why do YOU think educated women have fewer children?

[hiljaden]

If woman are given more rights and they become more educated they actually see the economic benifits that it brings if they have fewer children of decide not to have children. People are the problem of all economic problems fewer people fewer problems. Social pressure will be reduced they will be more free to make their own decisions. Men will have fewer dominence over them.
Whene education increaces peoples intersts increaces more time is spend on other things than having and raising large families. The more time spended on other things nl. education the more the world opens for them. I suppose its about the amount of time these people spend and on what having babies or being trained in some skills.

[Mike]

If woman are given more rights and they become more educated they actually see the economic benifits that it brings if they have fewer children of decide not to have children. People are the problem of all economic problems fewer people fewer problems. Social pressure will be reduced they will be more free to make their own decisions. Men will have fewer dominence over them. Whene education increaces peoples intersts increaces more time is spend on other things than having and raising large families. The more time spended on other things nl. education the more the world opens for them. I suppose its about the amount of time these people spend and on what having babies or being trained in some skills.

I agree with everything you say about the affect that education has on birth rates. And there certainly can be no question that for a (poor) family the fewer children the less the economic burden in terms of feeding, clothing, sheltering, raising them, etc. I might have a bit of of a problem, however with this isolated statement:

People are the problem of all economic problems fewer people fewer problems.

On the surface it sounds straightforward and elementary. On the other hand when I think about the fact that economy is all about people, then I become suspicious about overly simplifying the problems by framing them in terms of numbers of individuals. Would you like to elaborate on your thought, and discuss it further?

[Echo]

I think it's religion. Here in Russia, if we compare conservative Islamic Chechnya and liberal, secular Tatarstan, in Chechnya birth rates are 28/1000 people; Tatarstan is 14/1000. Same with Christians, secular Russians have maybe 12.5/1000. For Cossacks, my people, who are very devoted to God, depending on region, goes from 17 to, in some cases 21/1000.

I don't know if this is true world wide, but in Russia number of children in religious households is about twice those in secular or atheist ones, 3 times in some regions.

Biggest family I know personally is that of Father Pyotr, local priest at the village where my parents live


And Father Nikolai in Siberia has Russia's largest family, officially

18 own children. Rest adopted from all over Siberia.

Most priests in Russia have large families

The Church encourages, almost demands it: they must set an example for the faithful.

The more faithful the family, the larger:


It is similar for Muslims and their clergy. About Buddhists I don't know enough to discuss.

[MVPMAN]

well....It is a world problem....I think the most effective solution to deal with this, is to launch "one child policy" campaign. I know that is a controversial....plan....

[Echo]

well....It is a world problem....I think the most effective solution to deal with this, is to launch "one child policy" campaign. I know that is a controversial....plan....

Well, with North Caucasus, right now, there is a plan to offer unemployed young people there jobs and housing in other regions, other parts of the country. But it is encountering resistance among nationalists in those regions, as well as among some in North Caucasian communities, who, mistakenly, equate this with Stalin's mass deportations of North Caucasians in 1940s.