W.E.B. Du Bois
01-26-2012, 11:39 PM
I was recently wondering (and worrying) about what a brokered convention is. Here are two links that are worth reading to find out:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jan/26/mitch-daniels-chris-christie-gop
http://www.findingdulcinea.com/news/politics/Feb-08/-Brokered--Democratic-Convention-Would-Recall-1952.html
From The Guardian, the most plausible brokered convention scenario:
The white knight
A more plausible plan would be for an outsider to join late in the race, fight in whatever states he or she can, and then go to Tampa with enough delegates to prevent any other candidate from winning outright. In the following bout of horse-trading and backroom deals, that candidate could pose as the "unity" choice to bring together a party fractured between competing Romney, Gingrich and Paul camps. "There would come a point in the race where it would be a free for all and at that point someone like Mitch Daniels comes in as a white knight," says Magarian.
So the basic deal is that someone like Daniels would swoop in, let's say sometime between February and May, and then no one would be able to outright win the GOP nomination because no one will have a majority of delegates. Then a deal would be struck by someone, maybe the delegates, that the new candidate will get all the delegate support and be the nominee.
I think the likelihood of this rises if Gingrich looks like he might be the nominee and falls if Romney starts wuppin' Gingrich's ass. So it's in a Democrat's interest if Gingrich keeps wounding Romney, but Romney looks like he'll get the 1,400 or so candidates necessary to be the nominee. The party may simply not tolerate Gingrich as the candidate if it looks like he's beating Romney, thus drawing in Daniels.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jan/26/mitch-daniels-chris-christie-gop
http://www.findingdulcinea.com/news/politics/Feb-08/-Brokered--Democratic-Convention-Would-Recall-1952.html
From The Guardian, the most plausible brokered convention scenario:
The white knight
A more plausible plan would be for an outsider to join late in the race, fight in whatever states he or she can, and then go to Tampa with enough delegates to prevent any other candidate from winning outright. In the following bout of horse-trading and backroom deals, that candidate could pose as the "unity" choice to bring together a party fractured between competing Romney, Gingrich and Paul camps. "There would come a point in the race where it would be a free for all and at that point someone like Mitch Daniels comes in as a white knight," says Magarian.
So the basic deal is that someone like Daniels would swoop in, let's say sometime between February and May, and then no one would be able to outright win the GOP nomination because no one will have a majority of delegates. Then a deal would be struck by someone, maybe the delegates, that the new candidate will get all the delegate support and be the nominee.
I think the likelihood of this rises if Gingrich looks like he might be the nominee and falls if Romney starts wuppin' Gingrich's ass. So it's in a Democrat's interest if Gingrich keeps wounding Romney, but Romney looks like he'll get the 1,400 or so candidates necessary to be the nominee. The party may simply not tolerate Gingrich as the candidate if it looks like he's beating Romney, thus drawing in Daniels.