W.E.B. Du Bois
10-18-2010, 10:44 AM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/10/17/AR2010101703405.html
l The first tier: Democratic-held seats in North Dakota, Indiana and Arkansas are near-certain Republican pickups. Democrats aren't even seriously contesting the open Senate seat in North Dakota, of which Gov. John Hoeven (R) is the de facto winner. And although Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D) is a quality Senate candidate in Indiana, he's running in a very tough year to win an open seat in the Hoosier State. Polling consistently shows Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) behind Rep. John Boozman (R) in Arkansas. So that's plus three for Republicans.
l The second tier: Sen. Russell Feingold (D-Wis.) is in deep trouble in his reelection bid against wealthy businessman Ron Johnson. Feingold, who has spent 18 years in the Senate cultivating an outsider image, has watched as Johnson has taken the outsider mantle from him with ease. In Pennsylvania, Democrats insist they are on the comeback trail - and recent polling shows the race tightening somewhat - but former congressman Pat Toomey (R) had opened up a steady edge over Rep. Joe Sestak (D). Give Republicans both seats and they are halfway to the majority: plus five.
l The third tier: Polling in Colorado, Nevada, Illinois and West Virginia suggests each of those races is a genuine tossup; in a year in which the national winds are blowing strongly in Republicans' favor, it's not unreasonable to assume that GOP candidates in each will get just enough benefit from that breeze to win (a la Webb and Tester in 2006). That makes plus nine for Republicans - still one short of the majority.
l The fourth tier: The majority then comes down to three states in which Democrats have heavy demographic advantages: California, Connecticut and Washington. (Barack Obama carried that trio by 24, 23 and 18 percentage points, respectively.) Connecticut appears to be the weakest opportunity of the three, with polls showing state Attorney General Dick Blumenthal (D) ahead of former World Wrestling Entertainment executive Linda McMahon (R) by double digits. And the cost of running for office in California may well keep Barbara Boxer (D) in the Senate. That means that the race in Washington between Sen. Patty Murray (D) and former state senator Dino Rossi (R) could be the linchpin on the narrow hopes Republicans hold out for control of the chamber. Both national parties are pouring millions into the race - and will continue to do so until Election Day. Polling averages give Murray a six-point edge, and those may be the most important six points in the country for Democrats right now.
All of the above assumes that Republicans lose none of their own seats, a possibility that is becoming more likely by the day. GOP Sens. David Vitter (La.) and Richard Burr (N.C.) appear to be on relatively solid electoral footing, and the open-seat Missouri contest has moved in GOP Rep. Roy Blunt's favor. That leaves the Kentucky race between state Attorney General Jack Conway (D) and ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R) as Democrats' best and only real pickup opportunity.
The possibility of a wild card - say, Alaska, where a three-way race could create chaos - always exists and could change everything.
Ain't politics great?
I buy the first and second tier. I think that the third and fourth tier have a significant problem for Republican takeover, mostly in:
Illinois (3rd)
West Virginia (3rd)
Washington state (4th)
I can see Reid and Bennet losing, but I see it as a longer shot to defeat Gianoulias, Manchin and a really long shot to defeat Patty Murray. Pollster.com has Murray up by an average of 4 points using likely voter polls. Kirk leads Giannoulias by one point using likely voter polls, however you really have to wonder if the President is going to let him win. Manchin is leading by an average of 3 points in likely voter models. From my New York perspective, Manchin seems to be like Andrew Cuomo, the guy everybody likes and respects on an individual level.
Been meaning to try this for a while, so I'll make my predictions now:
Kentucky - GOP win
North Dakota - GOP win (+1)
Indiana - GOP win (+2)
Arkansas - GOP win (+3)
Wisconsin - GOP win (+4)
Pennsylvania - GOP win (+5)
Colorado - GOP win (+6)
Nevada - GOP win (+7)
Illinois - Dem win
West Virginia - Dem win
California - Dem win
Connecticut - Dem win
Washington - Dem win
GOP picks up 7 seats in the Senate.
l The first tier: Democratic-held seats in North Dakota, Indiana and Arkansas are near-certain Republican pickups. Democrats aren't even seriously contesting the open Senate seat in North Dakota, of which Gov. John Hoeven (R) is the de facto winner. And although Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D) is a quality Senate candidate in Indiana, he's running in a very tough year to win an open seat in the Hoosier State. Polling consistently shows Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) behind Rep. John Boozman (R) in Arkansas. So that's plus three for Republicans.
l The second tier: Sen. Russell Feingold (D-Wis.) is in deep trouble in his reelection bid against wealthy businessman Ron Johnson. Feingold, who has spent 18 years in the Senate cultivating an outsider image, has watched as Johnson has taken the outsider mantle from him with ease. In Pennsylvania, Democrats insist they are on the comeback trail - and recent polling shows the race tightening somewhat - but former congressman Pat Toomey (R) had opened up a steady edge over Rep. Joe Sestak (D). Give Republicans both seats and they are halfway to the majority: plus five.
l The third tier: Polling in Colorado, Nevada, Illinois and West Virginia suggests each of those races is a genuine tossup; in a year in which the national winds are blowing strongly in Republicans' favor, it's not unreasonable to assume that GOP candidates in each will get just enough benefit from that breeze to win (a la Webb and Tester in 2006). That makes plus nine for Republicans - still one short of the majority.
l The fourth tier: The majority then comes down to three states in which Democrats have heavy demographic advantages: California, Connecticut and Washington. (Barack Obama carried that trio by 24, 23 and 18 percentage points, respectively.) Connecticut appears to be the weakest opportunity of the three, with polls showing state Attorney General Dick Blumenthal (D) ahead of former World Wrestling Entertainment executive Linda McMahon (R) by double digits. And the cost of running for office in California may well keep Barbara Boxer (D) in the Senate. That means that the race in Washington between Sen. Patty Murray (D) and former state senator Dino Rossi (R) could be the linchpin on the narrow hopes Republicans hold out for control of the chamber. Both national parties are pouring millions into the race - and will continue to do so until Election Day. Polling averages give Murray a six-point edge, and those may be the most important six points in the country for Democrats right now.
All of the above assumes that Republicans lose none of their own seats, a possibility that is becoming more likely by the day. GOP Sens. David Vitter (La.) and Richard Burr (N.C.) appear to be on relatively solid electoral footing, and the open-seat Missouri contest has moved in GOP Rep. Roy Blunt's favor. That leaves the Kentucky race between state Attorney General Jack Conway (D) and ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R) as Democrats' best and only real pickup opportunity.
The possibility of a wild card - say, Alaska, where a three-way race could create chaos - always exists and could change everything.
Ain't politics great?
I buy the first and second tier. I think that the third and fourth tier have a significant problem for Republican takeover, mostly in:
Illinois (3rd)
West Virginia (3rd)
Washington state (4th)
I can see Reid and Bennet losing, but I see it as a longer shot to defeat Gianoulias, Manchin and a really long shot to defeat Patty Murray. Pollster.com has Murray up by an average of 4 points using likely voter polls. Kirk leads Giannoulias by one point using likely voter polls, however you really have to wonder if the President is going to let him win. Manchin is leading by an average of 3 points in likely voter models. From my New York perspective, Manchin seems to be like Andrew Cuomo, the guy everybody likes and respects on an individual level.
Been meaning to try this for a while, so I'll make my predictions now:
Kentucky - GOP win
North Dakota - GOP win (+1)
Indiana - GOP win (+2)
Arkansas - GOP win (+3)
Wisconsin - GOP win (+4)
Pennsylvania - GOP win (+5)
Colorado - GOP win (+6)
Nevada - GOP win (+7)
Illinois - Dem win
West Virginia - Dem win
California - Dem win
Connecticut - Dem win
Washington - Dem win
GOP picks up 7 seats in the Senate.